Hey guys, just thought I'd do something a little out of the ordinary today. Rookies are always a scary prospect in Fantasy Football, as we saw this last year with Ryan Mathews total bust of a season. On the other hand, Dez Bryant was quietly great as a WR2/Flex option for a good portion of the year and even Sam Bradford was a viable option, especially in two QB leagues. As we start looking at the draft, here is a quick look at 3 potential impact players for 2011. Feel free to comment and create your own list!
AJ Green - WR, Georgia
Green is the kind of WR that is so tough to project, he has been a monster in college, but will likely go to a team with a mediocre to bad quarterback, and a mediocre to bad receiving core. This means he will probably see a lot of double coverage, and although I believe at the moment he will be the rookie with the most fantasy hype, tread carefully. I really like AJ Green, but remember the risks that come with drafting a rookie, especially one on a bad team. Could be a high-upside mid-round pick.
Julio Jones - WR, Alabama
Should make an immediate impact on the field because of his great combination of size, speed, and strength. Will immediately improve a WR core and could be a potential late round target in fantasy leagues depending on his destination.
Mark Ingram - RB, Alabama
Ingram is an interesting prospect, a good runner who should produce immediately, especially since he will likely go to a good team. The Patriots are mentioned as a destination for Ingram and he would likely immediately become their lead running back. In a scenario like this, Ingram could be gold if you can snag him outside the first or second round. Inside those two rounds, I would be wary regardless of the team that drafts him after how Ryan Mathews turned out this year.
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Monday, January 24, 2011
Sunday, January 23, 2011
Preliminary Top 10 RB's for 2011
2010 was a strange year for running backs. Arian Foster and Peyton Hillis both exploded onto the scene in the early parts of the year, but there were also a few really subpar seasons, like the total stinker from DeAngelo Williams of Carolina or lack of playing time due to injury for Pierre Thomas of New Orleans. Going into next year, projecting running backs is a little tricky. I would appreciate any comments, feedback, or your own top 10 lists!
Here we go:
1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings
To me, Peterson is a safer pick than Chris Johnson. Although Johnson had the 2000 yard season, he was disappointing for stretches this year and struggled overall without an efficient offense. Peterson had a similar season to Johnson, but it's hard to imagine worse quarterback play than the Vikings had this year. This bodes well for Peterson, if he can produce with terrible quarterback play, he will likely be able to produce with whatever the Vikings have next year.
2. Arian Foster - Houston Texans
While Foster will likely have a 'down' year, a 'down' year from 1616 yards to go with 16 TDs is still pretty likely to be awesome. The main thing to love with Foster is the knowledge that they will give him the ball in the Red Zone. He will get many chances to score and if he plays like this year, convert on most of them.
3. Chris Johnson - Tennessee Titans
Although Johnson had a down year, producing 'only' 1364 and 11 TDs, the main worry here is wear and tear. Going forward, Johnson can't be the only weapon. If Tennessee drafts a quarterback or brings in a good veteran, his stock will trend up.
4. Jamaal Charles - Kansas City Chiefs
Charles quietly put together an incredible year, with over 1400 yards and SIX yards per carry, he was on fire the latter half of the season. With Thomas Jones only getting older, Charles will be carrying the brunt of the load next year behind a great offensive line in a balanced attack. To me, he has the potential to be a true #1 overall pick within the next year or two.
5. LeSean McCoy - Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy is an emerging back in an offense that is all about big plays. Although the quantity of carries is not there for McCoy like it is for some other backs, he can be dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver as well, and his role will likely continue to expand over the next year.
6. Maurice-Jones Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars
Drew had an up and down season, but you have to believe that the Jaguars know their best chance to win is a heavy dose of the run game, rinse and repeat. If they can improve their passing offense over the winter (possibly through WR improvement), MJD will produce even better next year.
7. Darren McFadden - Oakland Raiders
I probably have McFadden higher on my board than most at this point, but the Raiders are a great ground team, and with Hue Jackson having publicly said he wants to make the raiders into a 'bully', McFadden will be his workhorse. Explosive and a huge big play threat, I would be shocked if McFadden is not a top ten pick for 2012.
8. Ray Rice - Baltimore Ravens
Rice was unspectacular and at times bordered on bust status this year, but he pulled it together with a great string of games near the end of the season. Rice obviously has more value in PPR leagues, but even in non-PPR, he has shown he can be a consistent producer, despite scoring very few touchdowns.
9. Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons
The danger of Turner as a workhorse was apparent at a few times this year, although Turner had a solid season overall. When Atlanta falls behind, they really struggle to run the ball because of the lack of a big play threat in their backfield. I expect Turner's numbers to slip a little next year, simply because it's unlikely that the Falcons will play from behind as little as they did this year.
10. Knowshon Moreno - Denver Broncos
As long as he can stay healthy, he is the central back in an offense that has a lot of potent, down-field threats and a young developing quarterback. Of course, for Moreno, staying healthy has not been easy. This is a toss-up to me between Moreno, Hillis/Hardesty, and Mendenhall
Here we go:
1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings
To me, Peterson is a safer pick than Chris Johnson. Although Johnson had the 2000 yard season, he was disappointing for stretches this year and struggled overall without an efficient offense. Peterson had a similar season to Johnson, but it's hard to imagine worse quarterback play than the Vikings had this year. This bodes well for Peterson, if he can produce with terrible quarterback play, he will likely be able to produce with whatever the Vikings have next year.
2. Arian Foster - Houston Texans
While Foster will likely have a 'down' year, a 'down' year from 1616 yards to go with 16 TDs is still pretty likely to be awesome. The main thing to love with Foster is the knowledge that they will give him the ball in the Red Zone. He will get many chances to score and if he plays like this year, convert on most of them.
3. Chris Johnson - Tennessee Titans
Although Johnson had a down year, producing 'only' 1364 and 11 TDs, the main worry here is wear and tear. Going forward, Johnson can't be the only weapon. If Tennessee drafts a quarterback or brings in a good veteran, his stock will trend up.
4. Jamaal Charles - Kansas City Chiefs
Charles quietly put together an incredible year, with over 1400 yards and SIX yards per carry, he was on fire the latter half of the season. With Thomas Jones only getting older, Charles will be carrying the brunt of the load next year behind a great offensive line in a balanced attack. To me, he has the potential to be a true #1 overall pick within the next year or two.
5. LeSean McCoy - Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy is an emerging back in an offense that is all about big plays. Although the quantity of carries is not there for McCoy like it is for some other backs, he can be dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver as well, and his role will likely continue to expand over the next year.
6. Maurice-Jones Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars
Drew had an up and down season, but you have to believe that the Jaguars know their best chance to win is a heavy dose of the run game, rinse and repeat. If they can improve their passing offense over the winter (possibly through WR improvement), MJD will produce even better next year.
7. Darren McFadden - Oakland Raiders
I probably have McFadden higher on my board than most at this point, but the Raiders are a great ground team, and with Hue Jackson having publicly said he wants to make the raiders into a 'bully', McFadden will be his workhorse. Explosive and a huge big play threat, I would be shocked if McFadden is not a top ten pick for 2012.
8. Ray Rice - Baltimore Ravens
Rice was unspectacular and at times bordered on bust status this year, but he pulled it together with a great string of games near the end of the season. Rice obviously has more value in PPR leagues, but even in non-PPR, he has shown he can be a consistent producer, despite scoring very few touchdowns.
9. Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons
The danger of Turner as a workhorse was apparent at a few times this year, although Turner had a solid season overall. When Atlanta falls behind, they really struggle to run the ball because of the lack of a big play threat in their backfield. I expect Turner's numbers to slip a little next year, simply because it's unlikely that the Falcons will play from behind as little as they did this year.
10. Knowshon Moreno - Denver Broncos
As long as he can stay healthy, he is the central back in an offense that has a lot of potent, down-field threats and a young developing quarterback. Of course, for Moreno, staying healthy has not been easy. This is a toss-up to me between Moreno, Hillis/Hardesty, and Mendenhall
Monday, January 17, 2011
Preliminary Top 10 WR's for 2011
Hey guys, it's never too early to get started again looking at next year. Hopefully your playoffs went well, here we go.
In 2010, Roddy White was a dominant force in fantasy in the early to middle parts of the season, while Greg Jennings came on late to put up some really good numbers. Looking forward to 2011, here is my top ten:
1. Roddy White - Atlanta Falcons: Number one target in an offense that has great balance and a blossoming young quarterback. Not a lot more you can really ask for here, great in both PPR and non-PPR formats.
2. Greg Jennings - Green Bay Packers: Came on really strong at the end of the year, and although adding Jermichael Finley back to the Packers' offense will take away some of his targets, I think Rodgers has finally figured out how to best use him.
3. Calvin Johnson - Detroit Lions: Even with Stafford injured most of the season, Megatron was beastly. As the Lions get better on both sides of the ball, Calvin Johnson is only going to get better.
4. Andre Johnson - Houston Texans: With Houston's newfound running ability as well as nagging injuries, Johnson had a little bit of a down 2010. Despite this, he is still the number one target in a highly productive offense that is often playing from behind.
5. Hakeem Nicks - New York Giants: Listing Nicks this high may surprise some, but besides a few durability concerns, Nicks is insane. He gets a huge number of downfield and red zone targets on a good passing team and had amazing progression from year one to year two. If he continues to get better, he will become an even more dominant receiver.
6. Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts: Although the Colts and Wayne both struggled this year at times, Wayne was huge on a pretty regular basis. A little hit or miss, and has a tendency to get shut down by elite corners, but even with that reservation, he's the number one target for Peyton Manning.
7. DeSean Jackson - Philadelphia Eagles: The ultimate in boom or bust. You know what you're getting yourself into when you draft Jackson, but he can be an absolute game changer in both fantasy and real life.
8. Mike Wallace - Pittsburgh Steelers: A huge vertical threat with a great quarterback throwing him the ball. Wallace will not get as many receptions as most ranked above him, but besides DeSean Jackson, he is the most explosive player on this list.
9. Mike Williams - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With Josh Freeman making rapid improvement at the quarterback position, Mike Williams is the key beneficiary. He put together an amazing rookie campaign and as he becomes more experienced defenses better watch out.
10. Dez Bryant - Dallas Cowboys: Clearly the most talented Cowboys receiver. With Romo back and healthy, I suspect that Bryant will supplant Miles Austin as the true #1 in Dallas and become a very very good fantasy WR1 or WR2.
Honorable Mention: Larry Fitzgerald - Arizona Cardinals: If the Cardinals go into 2011 without upgrading their quarterback position, Fitzgerald is likely going to have another less productive season. If the Cardinals trade for someone like McNabb, Fitzgerald instantly gains considerable value.
In 2010, Roddy White was a dominant force in fantasy in the early to middle parts of the season, while Greg Jennings came on late to put up some really good numbers. Looking forward to 2011, here is my top ten:
1. Roddy White - Atlanta Falcons: Number one target in an offense that has great balance and a blossoming young quarterback. Not a lot more you can really ask for here, great in both PPR and non-PPR formats.
2. Greg Jennings - Green Bay Packers: Came on really strong at the end of the year, and although adding Jermichael Finley back to the Packers' offense will take away some of his targets, I think Rodgers has finally figured out how to best use him.
3. Calvin Johnson - Detroit Lions: Even with Stafford injured most of the season, Megatron was beastly. As the Lions get better on both sides of the ball, Calvin Johnson is only going to get better.
4. Andre Johnson - Houston Texans: With Houston's newfound running ability as well as nagging injuries, Johnson had a little bit of a down 2010. Despite this, he is still the number one target in a highly productive offense that is often playing from behind.
5. Hakeem Nicks - New York Giants: Listing Nicks this high may surprise some, but besides a few durability concerns, Nicks is insane. He gets a huge number of downfield and red zone targets on a good passing team and had amazing progression from year one to year two. If he continues to get better, he will become an even more dominant receiver.
6. Reggie Wayne - Indianapolis Colts: Although the Colts and Wayne both struggled this year at times, Wayne was huge on a pretty regular basis. A little hit or miss, and has a tendency to get shut down by elite corners, but even with that reservation, he's the number one target for Peyton Manning.
7. DeSean Jackson - Philadelphia Eagles: The ultimate in boom or bust. You know what you're getting yourself into when you draft Jackson, but he can be an absolute game changer in both fantasy and real life.
8. Mike Wallace - Pittsburgh Steelers: A huge vertical threat with a great quarterback throwing him the ball. Wallace will not get as many receptions as most ranked above him, but besides DeSean Jackson, he is the most explosive player on this list.
9. Mike Williams - Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With Josh Freeman making rapid improvement at the quarterback position, Mike Williams is the key beneficiary. He put together an amazing rookie campaign and as he becomes more experienced defenses better watch out.
10. Dez Bryant - Dallas Cowboys: Clearly the most talented Cowboys receiver. With Romo back and healthy, I suspect that Bryant will supplant Miles Austin as the true #1 in Dallas and become a very very good fantasy WR1 or WR2.
Honorable Mention: Larry Fitzgerald - Arizona Cardinals: If the Cardinals go into 2011 without upgrading their quarterback position, Fitzgerald is likely going to have another less productive season. If the Cardinals trade for someone like McNabb, Fitzgerald instantly gains considerable value.
Saturday, December 11, 2010
Running Back Rankings, Week 14
Just thought with games starting tomorrow morning, I'd throw out my top 40 running backs. Good luck in your games, and win or lose be sure to talk some trash! (Note: Chris Johnson and all Indy RB's are not listed, since the game was played Thursday.)
1. Peyton Hillis @Buf
2. Michael Turner @Car
3. Adrian Peterson NYG (Game has been moved to Monday Night due to snow delay!)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew Oak
5. Knowshon Moreno @Ari
6. Arian Foster Bal
7. Ray Rice @Hou
8. Rashard Mendenhall Cin
9. LeSean McCoy @Dal
10. Steven Jackson @NO
11. Darren McFadden @Jac
12. Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis @Chi
13. Jamaal Charles @SD
14. Matt Forte NE
15. Ahmad Bradshaw @Min (Game has been moved to Monday Night due to snow delay!)
16. LeGarrette Blount @Was
17. Chris Ivory STL
18. Mike Tolbert KC
19. Brandon Jacobs @Min (Game has been moved to Monday Night due to snow delay!)
20. Cedric Benson @Pit
21. Ladainian Tomlinson Mia
22. Thomas Jones @SD
23. Jonathan Stewart ATL
24. James Starks @Det
25. Felix Jones Phi
26. Marshawn Lynch @SF
27. Ronnie Brown @NYJ
28. Jahvid Best GB
29. Tim Hightower Den
30. Brian Westbrook Sea
31. Shonne Green Mia
32. Tashard Choice Phi
33. Danny Woodhead (Ranks higher in Yahoo! leagues since he can be played at WR, especially in any league that requires three WR. In leagues with a flex, he's often a good choice) @Chi
34. Reggie Bush Stl
35. Anthony Dixon Sea
36. Bryan Westbrook Sea
37. Beanie Wells Den
38. Ricky Williams @NYJ
39. Michael Bush @Jac
40. Maurice Morris GB
I have Moreno ranked slightly higher than most because I believe after the poor passing performance last week, along with Knowshon's breakout game the new interim coach Studesville will pound the ball against the 30th ranked rush defense.
I have Turner over Adrian Peterson simply because I think Atlanta will likely be leading by 14+ most of the game and will be able to get him 25 touches.
Good luck tomorrow, let me know what you think in my comment section!
Mike
1. Peyton Hillis @Buf
2. Michael Turner @Car
3. Adrian Peterson NYG (Game has been moved to Monday Night due to snow delay!)
4. Maurice Jones-Drew Oak
5. Knowshon Moreno @Ari
6. Arian Foster Bal
7. Ray Rice @Hou
8. Rashard Mendenhall Cin
9. LeSean McCoy @Dal
10. Steven Jackson @NO
11. Darren McFadden @Jac
12. Ben-Jarvus Green-Ellis @Chi
13. Jamaal Charles @SD
14. Matt Forte NE
15. Ahmad Bradshaw @Min (Game has been moved to Monday Night due to snow delay!)
16. LeGarrette Blount @Was
17. Chris Ivory STL
18. Mike Tolbert KC
19. Brandon Jacobs @Min (Game has been moved to Monday Night due to snow delay!)
20. Cedric Benson @Pit
21. Ladainian Tomlinson Mia
22. Thomas Jones @SD
23. Jonathan Stewart ATL
24. James Starks @Det
25. Felix Jones Phi
26. Marshawn Lynch @SF
27. Ronnie Brown @NYJ
28. Jahvid Best GB
29. Tim Hightower Den
30. Brian Westbrook Sea
31. Shonne Green Mia
32. Tashard Choice Phi
33. Danny Woodhead (Ranks higher in Yahoo! leagues since he can be played at WR, especially in any league that requires three WR. In leagues with a flex, he's often a good choice) @Chi
34. Reggie Bush Stl
35. Anthony Dixon Sea
36. Bryan Westbrook Sea
37. Beanie Wells Den
38. Ricky Williams @NYJ
39. Michael Bush @Jac
40. Maurice Morris GB
I have Moreno ranked slightly higher than most because I believe after the poor passing performance last week, along with Knowshon's breakout game the new interim coach Studesville will pound the ball against the 30th ranked rush defense.
I have Turner over Adrian Peterson simply because I think Atlanta will likely be leading by 14+ most of the game and will be able to get him 25 touches.
Good luck tomorrow, let me know what you think in my comment section!
Mike
Defenses to Own
Since many of us are playing defenses from the Waiver Wire each week, I thought it would be good to take a look at which defenses will be the best to plug-and-play over the course of the next three weeks. I'm going to avoid defenses like Chicago, Pittsburgh, and GB because honestly if these are available they are definitely worth a roster spot.
Week 14 Desirable Matchups (The one you want to own is bolded):
Mia @ NYJ - although many have given up on the Jets defense as a fantasy powerhouse this year, you have to figure they will be awfully mad and ready to play against an anemic Miami offense. With Miami knowing they must win, they'll put the ball in the air and this could lead to turnovers and a big day for the Jets D.
Atlanta @ Carolina - Playing Atlanta is basically counting on one thing. Atlanta will be up early, up often, and force the Panthers to become more and more one-dimensional as the game wears on, leading Jimmy Clausen into multiple turnovers. Playing mediocre defenses against Carolina can burn you if you're a little unlucky, but any team playing Carolina has the potential for a big day.
Tampa Bay @ Washington - This one I recommend with caution, since the injury to Aqib Talib leaves them shorthanded in the secondary. Still, the Redskins offense has been abominable this year and it's not an altogether bad idea to try to take advantage of that fact! Play with caution, but if you need a big day to win, they could be a nice sleeper.
Denver @ Arizona - This is probably a desperation play only, but starting a defense who's coach has just been fired against a rookie quarterback in John Skelton can't be that bad, can it? Denver will have no problem scoring against Arizona, who has the 24th ranked pass defense and 30th ranked rush defense this year. This will open Skelton up to a lot of pressure trying to throw behind a battered offensive line and should lead to good production for the Denver D. Play with extreme caution, but has the potential to be huge.
Mike
Week 14 Desirable Matchups (The one you want to own is bolded):
Mia @ NYJ - although many have given up on the Jets defense as a fantasy powerhouse this year, you have to figure they will be awfully mad and ready to play against an anemic Miami offense. With Miami knowing they must win, they'll put the ball in the air and this could lead to turnovers and a big day for the Jets D.
Atlanta @ Carolina - Playing Atlanta is basically counting on one thing. Atlanta will be up early, up often, and force the Panthers to become more and more one-dimensional as the game wears on, leading Jimmy Clausen into multiple turnovers. Playing mediocre defenses against Carolina can burn you if you're a little unlucky, but any team playing Carolina has the potential for a big day.
Tampa Bay @ Washington - This one I recommend with caution, since the injury to Aqib Talib leaves them shorthanded in the secondary. Still, the Redskins offense has been abominable this year and it's not an altogether bad idea to try to take advantage of that fact! Play with caution, but if you need a big day to win, they could be a nice sleeper.
Denver @ Arizona - This is probably a desperation play only, but starting a defense who's coach has just been fired against a rookie quarterback in John Skelton can't be that bad, can it? Denver will have no problem scoring against Arizona, who has the 24th ranked pass defense and 30th ranked rush defense this year. This will open Skelton up to a lot of pressure trying to throw behind a battered offensive line and should lead to good production for the Denver D. Play with extreme caution, but has the potential to be huge.
Mike
Approaching the Fantasy Playoffs!
Ah, it's that time of year again, time to prepare for single-elimination battle in the manliest of sports. What am I talking about? Fantasy Football of course! As we either begin or approach playoff time in nearly all leagues, everyone is asking the same questions. Who can I pick up at this point? Which defenses make the best plays down the stretch? Should I try to ride trendy picks to victory or stick with consistency? Here are my thoughts on the above, and three playoff sleepers
Playoff Sleepers:
1. Sid Rice - Although some may call his performance last week fluky, he has clearly once again established himself as the number one target of the Vikings offense. Last week he looked like the Sidney we all remember from last year, and with the Vikings on the playoff bubble if they win out, in addition to the fact that Frazier is auditioning for the Vikings head coaching position, Rice is sure to plenty of looks in the coming weeks. Play him without worry.
2. Roy Williams - Much more of a deep sleeper than Rice, the injury of Dez Bryant once again opens things up for Roy E. Prior to Bryant's emergence in the second half of the season, Roy had quietly put together great numbers. As teams look to shut down Miles Austin, Williams will likely have a good chance at scoring a touchdown, and with week fifteen and sixteen matchups against Washington and Arizona, respectively, you have to like his chances to bounce back in a big way. He's a riskier play than Sid, but is also available in 50% of Yahoo! leagues.
3. Tashard Choice - Looking at another deep sleeper, Choice has become very fantasy-relevant with the injury to Marion Barber. With the Cowboys suddenly looking to a much more balanced offensive attack, expect Choice to get the majority of the goal line carries over the smaller Felix Jones. With their newly found efficiency on offense, Choice makes a great pickup. He's likely to get a good number of touches around the goal line, is totally fresh heading into the later part of the season, and Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has reason to show a balanced offensive attack.
One final thought as we head into the playoffs. Stick with what got you here, don't over think things, and remember, there is no more manly pursuit than that of dominating your league mates!
Mike
Playoff Sleepers:
1. Sid Rice - Although some may call his performance last week fluky, he has clearly once again established himself as the number one target of the Vikings offense. Last week he looked like the Sidney we all remember from last year, and with the Vikings on the playoff bubble if they win out, in addition to the fact that Frazier is auditioning for the Vikings head coaching position, Rice is sure to plenty of looks in the coming weeks. Play him without worry.
2. Roy Williams - Much more of a deep sleeper than Rice, the injury of Dez Bryant once again opens things up for Roy E. Prior to Bryant's emergence in the second half of the season, Roy had quietly put together great numbers. As teams look to shut down Miles Austin, Williams will likely have a good chance at scoring a touchdown, and with week fifteen and sixteen matchups against Washington and Arizona, respectively, you have to like his chances to bounce back in a big way. He's a riskier play than Sid, but is also available in 50% of Yahoo! leagues.
3. Tashard Choice - Looking at another deep sleeper, Choice has become very fantasy-relevant with the injury to Marion Barber. With the Cowboys suddenly looking to a much more balanced offensive attack, expect Choice to get the majority of the goal line carries over the smaller Felix Jones. With their newly found efficiency on offense, Choice makes a great pickup. He's likely to get a good number of touches around the goal line, is totally fresh heading into the later part of the season, and Cowboys coach Jason Garrett has reason to show a balanced offensive attack.
One final thought as we head into the playoffs. Stick with what got you here, don't over think things, and remember, there is no more manly pursuit than that of dominating your league mates!
Mike
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