2010 was a strange year for running backs. Arian Foster and Peyton Hillis both exploded onto the scene in the early parts of the year, but there were also a few really subpar seasons, like the total stinker from DeAngelo Williams of Carolina or lack of playing time due to injury for Pierre Thomas of New Orleans. Going into next year, projecting running backs is a little tricky. I would appreciate any comments, feedback, or your own top 10 lists!
Here we go:
1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings
To me, Peterson is a safer pick than Chris Johnson. Although Johnson had the 2000 yard season, he was disappointing for stretches this year and struggled overall without an efficient offense. Peterson had a similar season to Johnson, but it's hard to imagine worse quarterback play than the Vikings had this year. This bodes well for Peterson, if he can produce with terrible quarterback play, he will likely be able to produce with whatever the Vikings have next year.
2. Arian Foster - Houston Texans
While Foster will likely have a 'down' year, a 'down' year from 1616 yards to go with 16 TDs is still pretty likely to be awesome. The main thing to love with Foster is the knowledge that they will give him the ball in the Red Zone. He will get many chances to score and if he plays like this year, convert on most of them.
3. Chris Johnson - Tennessee Titans
Although Johnson had a down year, producing 'only' 1364 and 11 TDs, the main worry here is wear and tear. Going forward, Johnson can't be the only weapon. If Tennessee drafts a quarterback or brings in a good veteran, his stock will trend up.
4. Jamaal Charles - Kansas City Chiefs
Charles quietly put together an incredible year, with over 1400 yards and SIX yards per carry, he was on fire the latter half of the season. With Thomas Jones only getting older, Charles will be carrying the brunt of the load next year behind a great offensive line in a balanced attack. To me, he has the potential to be a true #1 overall pick within the next year or two.
5. LeSean McCoy - Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy is an emerging back in an offense that is all about big plays. Although the quantity of carries is not there for McCoy like it is for some other backs, he can be dangerous out of the backfield as a receiver as well, and his role will likely continue to expand over the next year.
6. Maurice-Jones Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars
Drew had an up and down season, but you have to believe that the Jaguars know their best chance to win is a heavy dose of the run game, rinse and repeat. If they can improve their passing offense over the winter (possibly through WR improvement), MJD will produce even better next year.
7. Darren McFadden - Oakland Raiders
I probably have McFadden higher on my board than most at this point, but the Raiders are a great ground team, and with Hue Jackson having publicly said he wants to make the raiders into a 'bully', McFadden will be his workhorse. Explosive and a huge big play threat, I would be shocked if McFadden is not a top ten pick for 2012.
8. Ray Rice - Baltimore Ravens
Rice was unspectacular and at times bordered on bust status this year, but he pulled it together with a great string of games near the end of the season. Rice obviously has more value in PPR leagues, but even in non-PPR, he has shown he can be a consistent producer, despite scoring very few touchdowns.
9. Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons
The danger of Turner as a workhorse was apparent at a few times this year, although Turner had a solid season overall. When Atlanta falls behind, they really struggle to run the ball because of the lack of a big play threat in their backfield. I expect Turner's numbers to slip a little next year, simply because it's unlikely that the Falcons will play from behind as little as they did this year.
10. Knowshon Moreno - Denver Broncos
As long as he can stay healthy, he is the central back in an offense that has a lot of potent, down-field threats and a young developing quarterback. Of course, for Moreno, staying healthy has not been easy. This is a toss-up to me between Moreno, Hillis/Hardesty, and Mendenhall
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